La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Valencia 2 – 3 Real Sociedad
The model gave a Real Sociedad win only 35%. At 35%, an outcome happens about 35 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Valencia
VS
Real Sociedad
Valencia win
25%
Draw
40%
Real Sociedad win
35%
Expected goals
0.8 – 0.9
Expected shots
8 – 14
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 20 September at 19:23 (UK time).