Premier League · Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 14:00 (UK time)
Final score: Manchester City 5 – 3 Sunderland
The outcome rated most likely (a Manchester City win, 54%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
Manchester City
VS
Sunderland
Manchester City win
54%
Draw
29%
Sunderland win
17%
Expected goals
1.7 – 0.9
Expected shots
14 – 14
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 20 September at 13:24 (UK time).