Bundesliga · Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 14:30 (UK time)
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 RB Leipzig
The outcome rated most likely (a Bayer Leverkusen win, 65%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
Bayer Leverkusen
VS
RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen win
65%
Draw
22%
RB Leipzig win
13%
Expected goals
2.4 – 1.1
Expected shots
21 – 20
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 20 September at 14:23 (UK time).