Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (UK time)
Union St. Gilloise
VS
Real Sociedad
Union St. Gilloise win
54%
Draw
28%
Real Sociedad win
18%
Expected goals
1.9 – 1.1
Expected shots
21 – 11
Match analysis
Union St. Gilloise comes out on top in most scenarios (54% win rate), but Real Sociedad finds a way in 18% of simulations. Union St. Gilloise frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 47% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 October at 01:18 (UK time).