Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (UK time)
Lyon
VS
Crystal Palace
Lyon win
44%
Draw
30%
Crystal Palace win
26%
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.3
Expected shots
13 – 16
Match analysis
Lyon holds a real edge (44% vs 26%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (30%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 October at 01:18 (UK time).