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Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

Bundesliga · Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 14:30 (UK time)

Final score: Union Berlin 0 – 0 Borussia Dortmund

The model gave a draw only 21%. At 21%, an outcome happens about 21 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Union Berlin
VS
Borussia Dortmund
Union Berlin win
9%
Draw
21%
Borussia Dortmund win
70%
Expected goals
0.8 – 2.3
Expected shots
7 – 25

Match analysis

Borussia Dortmund dominates this matchup: 70% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 9% for Union Berlin. Borussia Dortmund frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 54% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 October at 13:30 (UK time).

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