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FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction

Bundesliga · Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 14:30 (UK time)

Final score: FC Schalke 04 0 – 1 FSV Mainz 05

The outcome rated most likely (a FSV Mainz 05 win, 77%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

FC Schalke 04
VS
FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04 win
8%
Draw
15%
FSV Mainz 05 win
77%
Expected goals
1.1 – 3.0
Expected shots
10 – 22

Match analysis

FSV Mainz 05 dominates this matchup: 77% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 8% for FC Schalke 04. FSV Mainz 05 frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 60% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 October at 13:31 (UK time).

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