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Everton vs Chelsea prediction

Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 12:30 (UK time)

Final score: Everton 0 – 2 Chelsea

The model gave a Chelsea win only 28%. At 28%, an outcome happens about 28 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Everton
VS
Chelsea
Everton win
43%
Draw
29%
Chelsea win
28%
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.3
Expected shots
12 – 18

Match analysis

Everton holds a real edge (43% vs 28%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (30%) stays a live option.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 October at 11:30 (UK time).

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