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Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction

Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 17:30 (UK time)

Final score: Newcastle 0 – 1 Aston Villa

The outcome rated most likely (a Aston Villa win, 45%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

Newcastle
VS
Aston Villa
Newcastle win
26%
Draw
29%
Aston Villa win
45%
Expected goals
1.4 – 1.8
Expected shots
11 – 21

Match analysis

Aston Villa holds a real edge (45% vs 26%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (29%) stays a live option.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 October at 17:01 (UK time).

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