Nations League · Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Moldova
VS
Slovakia
Moldova win
19%
Draw
28%
Slovakia win
53%
Expected goals
1.1 – 1.8
Expected shots
4 – 25
Match analysis
Slovakia comes out on top in most scenarios (53% win rate), but Moldova finds a way in 19% of simulations. Slovakia frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 46% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 29 September at 01:10 (UK time).