Nations League · Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Estonia
VS
Iceland
Estonia win
25%
Draw
33%
Iceland win
42%
Expected goals
1.1 – 1.4
Expected shots
6 – 17
Match analysis
Iceland holds a real edge (42% vs 26%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (33%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 29 September at 01:10 (UK time).