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Luxembourg vs Bulgaria prediction

Nations League · Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Luxembourg
VS
Bulgaria
Luxembourg win
37%
Draw
37%
Bulgaria win
26%
Expected goals
1.1 – 0.9
Expected shots
16 – 8

Match analysis

Luxembourg holds a real edge (37% vs 26%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (37%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 49% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 29 September at 01:10 (UK time).

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