Nations League · Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Croatia
VS
Spain
Croatia win
12%
Draw
24%
Spain win
64%
Expected goals
0.9 – 2.1
Expected shots
5 – 25
Match analysis
Spain comes out on top in most scenarios (64% win rate), but Croatia finds a way in 12% of simulations. Spain frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 49% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 29 September at 01:10 (UK time).