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Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction

La Liga · Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 17:30 (UK time)

Final score: Malaga 2 – 5 Real Sociedad

The outcome rated most likely (a Real Sociedad win, 42%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

Malaga
VS
Real Sociedad
Malaga win
29%
Draw
29%
Real Sociedad win
42%
Expected goals
1.1 – 1.4
Expected shots
13 – 15

Match analysis

Real Sociedad holds a real edge (42% vs 29%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (29%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 46% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 18 October at 17:25 (UK time).

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