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Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction

Bundesliga · Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 14:30 (UK time)

Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 1 SC Freiburg

The outcome rated most likely (a Bayer Leverkusen win, 65%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

Bayer Leverkusen
VS
SC Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen win
65%
Draw
18%
SC Freiburg win
17%
Expected goals
2.7 – 1.4
Expected shots
15 – 11

Match analysis

Bayer Leverkusen dominates this matchup: 65% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 17% for SC Freiburg. Bayer Leverkusen frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 51% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 18 October at 13:36 (UK time).

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