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Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction

La Liga · Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 15:15 (UK time)

Final score: Celta Vigo 2 – 1 Alaves

The outcome rated most likely (a Celta Vigo win, 37%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

Celta Vigo
VS
Alaves
Celta Vigo win
37%
Draw
35%
Alaves win
28%
Expected goals
1.0 – 0.8
Expected shots
12 – 11

Match analysis

Genuinely open contest: Celta Vigo and Alaves finish within a few points of each other (37% vs 28%), with the draw at 35%. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 53% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 18 October at 14:36 (UK time).

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