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Leeds vs Manchester United prediction

Premier League · Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (UK time)

Final score: Leeds 1 – 1 Manchester United

The model gave a draw only 24%. At 24%, an outcome happens about 24 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Leeds
VS
Manchester United
Leeds win
60%
Draw
24%
Manchester United win
16%
Expected goals
1.9 – 0.9
Expected shots
13 – 16

Match analysis

Leeds comes out on top in most scenarios (60% win rate), but Manchester United finds a way in 16% of simulations. Leeds frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 44% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 18 October at 13:06 (UK time).

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