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Lyon vs Nice prediction

Ligue 1 · Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Final score: Lyon 2 – 1 Nice

The outcome rated most likely (a Lyon win, 75%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

Lyon
VS
Nice
Lyon win
75%
Draw
18%
Nice win
7%
Expected goals
2.3 – 0.6
Expected shots
20 – 8

Match analysis

Lyon dominates this matchup: 75% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 7% for Nice. Lyon frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 55% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 18 October at 18:55 (UK time).

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