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Lorient vs Monaco prediction

Ligue 1 · Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 16:15 (UK time)

Final score: Lorient 1 – 0 Monaco

The model gave a Lorient win only 31%. At 31%, an outcome happens about 31 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Lorient
VS
Monaco
Lorient win
31%
Draw
32%
Monaco win
37%
Expected goals
1.0 – 1.1
Expected shots
7 – 14

Match analysis

Genuinely open contest: Lorient and Monaco finish within a few points of each other (31% vs 37%), with the draw at 32%. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 50% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 18 October at 15:36 (UK time).

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