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Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction

Ligue 1 · Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Final score: Lille 1 – 1 Stade Brestois 29

The model gave a draw only 30%. At 30%, an outcome happens about 30 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Lille
VS
Stade Brestois 29
Lille win
41%
Draw
30%
Stade Brestois 29 win
29%
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.0
Expected shots
12 – 14

Match analysis

Lille holds a real edge (41% vs 29%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (30%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 47% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 October at 19:32 (UK time).

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