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Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia prediction

Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Jagiellonia
VS
Ararat-Armenia
Jagiellonia win
57%
Draw
22%
Ararat-Armenia win
21%
Expected goals
2.7 – 1.7
Expected shots
23 – 22

Match analysis

Jagiellonia comes out on top in most scenarios (57% win rate), but Ararat-Armenia finds a way in 21% of simulations. Jagiellonia frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 51% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 October at 01:20 (UK time).

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