Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (UK time)
FC Lugano
VS
FK Crvena Zvezda
FC Lugano win
39%
Draw
31%
FK Crvena Zvezda win
30%
Expected goals
1.5 – 1.3
Expected shots
13 – 13
Match analysis
Genuinely open contest: FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda finish within a few points of each other (39% vs 31%), with the draw at 31%.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 October at 01:19 (UK time).