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Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction

Ligue 1 · Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Final score: Estac Troyes 1 – 3 Lens

The outcome rated most likely (a Lens win, 52%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

Estac Troyes
VS
Lens
Estac Troyes win
22%
Draw
26%
Lens win
52%
Expected goals
1.0 – 1.6
Expected shots
7 – 25

Match analysis

Lens comes out on top in most scenarios (52% win rate), but Estac Troyes finds a way in 22% of simulations.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 October at 19:32 (UK time).

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