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Brentford vs Liverpool prediction

Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (UK time)

Final score: Brentford 1 – 2 Liverpool

The model gave a Liverpool win only 22%. At 22%, an outcome happens about 22 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Brentford
VS
Liverpool
Brentford win
45%
Draw
33%
Liverpool win
22%
Expected goals
1.4 – 1.0
Expected shots
14 – 17

Match analysis

Brentford holds a real edge (45% vs 22%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (33%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 46% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 October at 14:00 (UK time).

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