La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 15:15 (UK time)
Final score: Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Real Madrid
The model gave a Atletico Madrid win only 19%. At 19%, an outcome happens about 19 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Atletico Madrid
VS
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid win
19%
Draw
24%
Real Madrid win
57%
Expected goals
1.3 – 2.2
Expected shots
16 – 19
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 20 September at 14:23 (UK time).