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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction

La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 15:15 (UK time)

Final score: Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Real Madrid

The model gave a Atletico Madrid win only 19%. At 19%, an outcome happens about 19 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Atletico Madrid
VS
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid win
19%
Draw
24%
Real Madrid win
57%
Expected goals
1.3 – 2.2
Expected shots
16 – 19

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 20 September at 14:23 (UK time).

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