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Atalanta vs Pafos prediction

Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Atalanta
VS
Pafos
Atalanta win
45%
Draw
34%
Pafos win
21%
Expected goals
1.3 – 0.8
Expected shots
18 – 12

Match analysis

Atalanta holds a real edge (45% vs 21%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (34%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 47% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 October at 01:20 (UK time).

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