Serie A · Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Final score: AC Milan 3 – 0 Lecce
The outcome rated most likely (a AC Milan win, 46%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
AC Milan
VS
Lecce
AC Milan win
46%
Draw
33%
Lecce win
21%
Expected goals
1.4 – 1.0
Expected shots
18 – 9
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 20 September at 18:53 (UK time).