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Wales vs Norway prediction

Nations League · Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Wales
VS
Norway
Wales win
13%
Draw
20%
Norway win
67%
Expected goals
1.2 – 2.6
Expected shots
8 – 25

Match analysis

Norway dominates this matchup: 67% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 13% for Wales. Norway frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 55% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 24 September at 01:20 (UK time).

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