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Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein prediction

Nations League · Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)

Azerbaijan
VS
Liechtenstein
Azerbaijan win
48%
Draw
35%
Liechtenstein win
17%
Expected goals
1.2 – 0.7
Expected shots
8 – 4

Match analysis

Azerbaijan holds a real edge (48% vs 17%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (35%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 49% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 24 September at 01:19 (UK time).

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