Nations League · Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Azerbaijan
VS
Liechtenstein
Azerbaijan win
48%
Draw
35%
Liechtenstein win
17%
Expected goals
1.2 – 0.7
Expected shots
8 – 4
Match analysis
Azerbaijan holds a real edge (48% vs 17%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (35%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 49% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 24 September at 01:19 (UK time).