Nations League · Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Germany
VS
Serbia
Germany win
76%
Draw
17%
Serbia win
7%
Expected goals
2.7 – 0.9
Expected shots
21 – 7
Match analysis
Germany dominates this matchup: 75% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 7% for Serbia. Germany frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 61% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 24 September at 01:19 (UK time).