Nations League · Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Rep. Of Ireland
VS
Austria
Rep. Of Ireland win
48%
Draw
30%
Austria win
22%
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.1
Expected shots
7 – 12
Match analysis
Rep. Of Ireland holds a real edge (48% vs 22%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (30%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 24 September at 01:20 (UK time).