Nations League · Monday, 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Ukraine
VS
Hungary
Ukraine win
36%
Draw
31%
Hungary win
33%
Expected goals
1.5 – 1.4
Expected shots
10 – 14
Match analysis
Genuinely open contest: Ukraine and Hungary finish within a few points of each other (36% vs 34%), with the draw at 31%.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 28 September at 01:10 (UK time).