Nations League · Monday, 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Italy
VS
Türkiye
Italy win
22%
Draw
27%
Türkiye win
51%
Expected goals
1.4 – 2.1
Expected shots
14 – 24
Match analysis
Türkiye comes out on top in most scenarios (51% win rate), but Italy finds a way in 22% of simulations. Türkiye frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 43% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 28 September at 01:10 (UK time).