Nations League · Monday, 5 October 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Cyprus
VS
Latvia
Cyprus win
48%
Draw
26%
Latvia win
26%
Expected goals
2.1 – 1.6
Expected shots
16 – 9
Match analysis
Cyprus holds a real edge (48% vs 27%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (26%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 28 September at 01:10 (UK time).