Nations League · Monday, 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
France
VS
Belgium
France win
60%
Draw
24%
Belgium win
16%
Expected goals
2.3 – 1.3
Expected shots
22 – 9
Match analysis
France comes out on top in most scenarios (61% win rate), but Belgium finds a way in 16% of simulations. France frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 48% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 28 September at 01:10 (UK time).