Nations League · Monday, 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Northern Ireland
VS
Georgia
Northern Ireland win
44%
Draw
35%
Georgia win
21%
Expected goals
1.2 – 0.8
Expected shots
10 – 11
Match analysis
Northern Ireland holds a real edge (44% vs 21%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (35%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 48% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 28 September at 01:10 (UK time).