Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Türkiye
VS
Italy
Türkiye win
40%
Draw
26%
Italy win
34%
Expected goals
2.1 – 2.0
Expected shots
18 – 15
Match analysis
Genuinely open contest: Türkiye and Italy finish within a few points of each other (40% vs 34%), with the draw at 26%.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 14:15 (UK time).