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Türkiye vs Italy prediction

Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Türkiye
VS
Italy
Türkiye win
40%
Draw
26%
Italy win
34%
Expected goals
2.1 – 2.0
Expected shots
18 – 15

Match analysis

Genuinely open contest: Türkiye and Italy finish within a few points of each other (40% vs 34%), with the draw at 26%.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 14:15 (UK time).

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