Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Sweden
VS
Poland
Sweden win
38%
Draw
32%
Poland win
30%
Expected goals
1.5 – 1.3
Expected shots
9 – 16
Match analysis
Genuinely open contest: Sweden and Poland finish within a few points of each other (38% vs 30%), with the draw at 31%.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 14:15 (UK time).