Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Northern Ireland
VS
Hungary
Northern Ireland win
28%
Draw
32%
Hungary win
40%
Expected goals
1.2 – 1.4
Expected shots
7 – 18
Match analysis
Hungary holds a real edge (40% vs 28%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (32%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 14:15 (UK time).