Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Armenia
VS
Montenegro
Armenia win
28%
Draw
31%
Montenegro win
41%
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.6
Expected shots
7 – 19
Match analysis
Montenegro holds a real edge (41% vs 28%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (31%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 14:14 (UK time).