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Spain vs Croatia prediction

Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Spain
VS
Croatia
Spain win
53%
Draw
27%
Croatia win
20%
Expected goals
2.0 – 1.2
Expected shots
18 – 9

Match analysis

Spain comes out on top in most scenarios (53% win rate), but Croatia finds a way in 20% of simulations. Spain frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 44% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 September at 20:44 (UK time).

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