Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Luxembourg
VS
Iceland
Luxembourg win
37%
Draw
33%
Iceland win
30%
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.1
Expected shots
11 – 8
Match analysis
Genuinely open contest: Luxembourg and Iceland finish within a few points of each other (37% vs 30%), with the draw at 33%.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 September at 20:45 (UK time).