Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Moldova
VS
Faroe Islands
Moldova win
30%
Draw
31%
Faroe Islands win
39%
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.4
Expected shots
7 – 10
Match analysis
Genuinely open contest: Moldova and Faroe Islands finish within a few points of each other (29% vs 39%), with the draw at 31%.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 September at 20:44 (UK time).