Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Finland
VS
Belarus
Finland win
59%
Draw
25%
Belarus win
16%
Expected goals
2.1 – 1.1
Expected shots
11 – 11
Match analysis
Finland comes out on top in most scenarios (59% win rate), but Belarus finds a way in 16% of simulations. Finland frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 49% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 September at 20:44 (UK time).