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Poland vs Romania prediction

Nations League · Friday, 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Poland
VS
Romania
Poland win
49%
Draw
29%
Romania win
22%
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.1
Expected shots
17 – 13

Match analysis

Poland holds a real edge (49% vs 22%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (29%) stays a live option.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 25 September at 01:10 (UK time).

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