Nations League · Friday, 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Belgium
VS
Türkiye
Belgium win
49%
Draw
28%
Türkiye win
23%
Expected goals
1.9 – 1.4
Expected shots
17 – 12
Match analysis
Belgium holds a real edge (49% vs 23%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (28%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 25 September at 01:10 (UK time).