Nations League · Friday, 2 October 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Latvia
VS
Montenegro
Latvia win
35%
Draw
32%
Montenegro win
33%
Expected goals
1.4 – 1.4
Expected shots
9 – 19
Match analysis
Genuinely open contest: Latvia and Montenegro finish within a few points of each other (35% vs 33%), with the draw at 32%.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 25 September at 01:10 (UK time).