Nations League · Friday, 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
France
VS
Italy
France win
69%
Draw
19%
Italy win
12%
Expected goals
2.8 – 1.3
Expected shots
25 – 8
Match analysis
France dominates this matchup: 69% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 12% for Italy. France frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 57% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 25 September at 01:10 (UK time).