Nations League · Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Rep. Of Ireland
VS
Israel
Rep. Of Ireland win
60%
Draw
24%
Israel win
16%
Expected goals
2.2 – 1.2
Expected shots
11 – 9
Match analysis
Rep. Of Ireland comes out on top in most scenarios (60% win rate), but Israel finds a way in 16% of simulations. Rep. Of Ireland frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 49% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 27 September at 01:10 (UK time).