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Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction

Nations League · Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (UK time)

Azerbaijan
VS
Lithuania
Azerbaijan win
30%
Draw
37%
Lithuania win
33%
Expected goals
1.0 – 1.0
Expected shots
7 – 13

Match analysis

Genuinely open contest: Azerbaijan and Lithuania finish within a few points of each other (30% vs 33%), with the draw at 37%. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 49% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 27 September at 01:10 (UK time).

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